Uncategorized

GTA Housing News, October 13, 2026: Toronto's Land Transfer Tax Election Fight, 68,000 Lost Jobs and a 6.19% Posted Rate

GTA housing news for October 13, 2026: the Toronto municipal election land transfer tax proposal (no MLTT on the first $1.1 million), September's 68,000 job loss, the posted 5-year mortgage rate rising to 6.19%, Toronto rents, and the calendar to the October 28 Bank of Canada decision.

Detached and semi-detached homes on a Toronto residential street, fall 2026

October 13, 2026. Three things changed for GTA buyers and sellers since our September TRREB recap last Tuesday. Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. The Bank of Canada’s tracked posted 5-year mortgage rate moved for the first time since May 2025, to 6.19%. And Toronto’s municipal land transfer tax became a live issue in the October 26 municipal election. With the Bank of Canada’s next decision on October 28, here is what each headline means for your money, plus the dates to watch over the next 15 days.

Headline 1: the September jobs report and what it means for mortgage rates

Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, released October 9, showed employment fell by 68,000 (−0.3%) in September, the second monthly decline in a row. The national unemployment rate rose to 6.5%, and average hourly wages were up 2.3% from a year earlier.

Closer to home, the numbers were mixed:

  • Ontario: employment edged down by about 20,000, but the provincial unemployment rate held at 7.0%, which is 0.9 points lower than a year earlier. Ontario employment was still up 86,000 (+1.1%) year over year.
  • Toronto CMA: StatCan’s monthly table puts the Toronto unemployment rate at 7.2% in September, up from 6.7% in August but 1.4 points lower than September 2025. Toronto employment was up 1.8% from a year earlier. Monthly city-level numbers bounce around, so treat one month with care.

Why this matters for housing: a softer job market makes a Bank of Canada hike harder to justify, and bond markets noticed. The Government of Canada 5-year benchmark yield, which drives fixed mortgage pricing, slipped to 3.54% on October 9, from 3.69% on September 29. That is still about a full point above its 2026 low of 2.67% on February 27, according to Bank of Canada data.

Headline 2: the posted 5-year mortgage rate rose to 6.19%

The Bank of Canada publishes a weekly “conventional mortgage, 5-year” rate, which reflects the posted rate at the big chartered banks. It had sat at 6.09% since May 2025. In the October 7 reading it rose to 6.19%. Posted rates are not what most well-qualified borrowers actually pay, but they confirm the direction: Canadian Mortgage Trends reported that RBC, BMO and CIBC all raised advertised rates in the week of October 5, with RBC lifting fixed rates by 10 to 20 basis points and CIBC by 15 to 20.

Meanwhile, the policy rate is still 2.25% after seven straight holds since October 2025, and big-bank prime is 4.45%. So the squeeze in fall 2026 is on fixed-rate borrowers and renewers, not on variable-rate holders, at least until October 28. One more sign of how borrowers are reacting: National Bank data cited by CMT shows fixed terms of five years or longer were just 8.8% of new mortgages in July, the lowest share in its series back to 2013. If you are weighing variable against fixed, our variable mortgage guide before October 28 walks through the trade-off.

Headline 3: Toronto’s land transfer tax is on the October 26 ballot

Ontario’s municipal election is Monday, October 26, two days before the Bank of Canada decision, and advance voting has started in several GTA municipalities. TRREB’s October 8 election watch says Toronto mayoral candidate Brad Bradford has proposed eliminating Toronto’s municipal land transfer tax (MLTT) on the first $1.1 million of a home purchase. Under the proposal, buyers of a principal residence at $1.1 million or less would pay no MLTT. It would cover first-time and repeat buyers, but not investors or commercial buyers. The campaign estimates eligible buyers could save up to $18,000. TRREB called it a “significant step forward for homebuyers in Toronto.”

TRREB is also asking candidates in the rest of the GTA and Simcoe County to oppose any new municipal land transfer tax. Toronto is still the only Ontario municipality with its own land transfer tax on top of the provincial one. TRREB says the MLTT adds more than $18,000 to an average-priced Toronto home, and that combined municipal and provincial land transfer taxes can exceed $36,000.

Here is what the MLTT costs today, using the City of Toronto’s published rates (0.5% to $55,000, 1% to $250,000, 1.5% to $400,000 and 2% above that, up to $2 million), and September 2026 TRREB prices for the City of Toronto (median $810,000, average $1,034,320):

Toronto purchase priceMLTT at today’s City ratesFirst-time buyer, after the City’s rebate (up to $4,475)
$810,000 (September median)$12,675$8,200
$1,000,000$16,475$12,000
$1,034,320 (September average)$17,161$12,686
$1,100,000$18,475$14,000

These figures exclude the City’s $102.56 + HST administration fee and the provincial land transfer tax, which you pay anywhere in Ontario. Run your full number on our land transfer calculator. Our math at $1,100,000 ($18,475) lands a little above the campaign’s “up to $18,000” estimate, so the real savings would depend on how a bylaw is written.

The key caution: this is a campaign proposal, not law. It would need a winning candidate, a council vote and a bylaw, and nobody has published a start date. If you are buying in Toronto this fall, budget for today’s MLTT. Do not push back a good purchase on the hope of a future rebate.

Headline 4: Toronto rents are at a five-year September low

The Rentals.ca and Urbanation report published October 7 puts Toronto’s average asking rent for apartments and condos at $2,554 in September, down 1.4% from a year earlier. That is the 32nd straight month of annual decline and the lowest September level since 2021. The exception is family-size units: Toronto three-bedroom rents rose 1.8% to $3,586, the only annual three-bedroom increase among Canada’s six largest markets. For first-time buyers that means a softer rent-versus-buy comparison on small condos. For investors it means pricing a condo rental on today’s rent, not 2023’s.

The GTA housing calendar to October 28

  • Wednesday, October 14: StatCan building permits for August.
  • Friday, October 16: CREA’s September national resale numbers and CMHC’s September housing starts.
  • Monday, October 19: September Consumer Price Index from StatCan (August CPI was 3.0%, or 2.4% excluding gasoline). The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations follow at 11:30 a.m. ET.
  • Monday, October 26: municipal election day across Ontario, including Toronto, Peel, York, Durham, Halton and Barrie.
  • Wednesday, October 28: Bank of Canada rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report.
  • Friday, November 6: October Labour Force Survey.

For the full rate-decision game plan, see our October 28 playbook.

What GTA buyers should do now

  1. Get a written rate hold this week. Banks are still repricing fixed rates upward even though the 5-year yield dipped after the jobs report. A pre-approval with a rate hold limits your exposure if the October 19 CPI comes in hot. Ask your lender exactly how long the hold lasts.
  2. Budget closing costs at today’s land transfer tax. Use the table above for the Toronto portion and add the provincial tax. First-time buyers should claim the City rebate (up to $4,475) and the provincial refund. Our first-time buyer guide stacks FHSA, the Home Buyers’ Plan and land transfer rebates.
  3. Use cash back to cover part of the tax bill. National Home Realty’s buyer cash back shares up to 50% of the cooperating commission we receive. On a $1,000,000 purchase at a 2.5% commission, an offer in days 1 to 7 of your search returns $12,500, about three-quarters of the $16,475 Toronto MLTT on that home. Tiers are 35% ($8,750) for days 8 to 14 and 25% ($6,250) for days 15 to 21, and your amount is set in your written buyer agreement. See Toronto closing costs vs. cash back for the full picture.
  4. Use the slower market. In the City of Toronto, September homes sold for 99% of list price on average, with 4.6 months of inventory (TRREB trend). That leaves room for conditions and price negotiation.

What GTA sellers should do now

  1. Price for a buyer who is paying more to borrow. Higher fixed rates and the land transfer tax both cut into buyers’ budgets. Price from September’s comparable sales, not spring’s. TRREB’s GTA average was $1,006,409, down 5.1% from a year earlier.
  2. Know your timeline against the calendar. If a buyer is waiting on the October 19 CPI or the October 28 decision, a firm closing date and clean conditions can win you the deal now.
  3. Keep more of your equity. With prices lower than last year, commission is the biggest line you can control. National Home Realty lists your home on MLS® for a flat $6,000 + HST ($6,780), paid only when it sells. On a $1,000,000 sale, a 2.5% listing commission plus HST is $28,250, so the flat fee keeps $21,470 more in your pocket. The buyer-brokerage commission you choose to offer is separate. Our seller net sheet shows every other cost.
  4. Selling and buying in Toronto? You pay the MLTT on the purchase side, so a flat-fee sale plus a cash back purchase can cover a big part of that tax. Ask us to put both in writing.

Bottom line

September’s job losses make an October 28 rate hike less certain, but fixed mortgage rates are still drifting up, and the posted 5-year rate just moved for the first time in more than a year. In Toronto, the land transfer tax could change after October 26, but only if a proposal becomes a bylaw. Plan with today’s numbers and protect your savings where you can control them: a $6,000 + HST flat fee when you sell, and buyer cash back when you buy. Our Toronto discount realtor comparison for 2026 shows how both options work.

Next step: book a pricing call on our flat fee listing page, or get your estimate on the buyer cash back page.

Sources

This article is general information only, not legal, tax, mortgage or brokerage advice. Election proposals are not law until enacted. Land transfer tax figures are illustrations at the City of Toronto’s published rates and exclude provincial tax and fees. Cash back depends on the cooperating commission National Home Realty receives and is set out in your written agreement. Commission is negotiable. National Home Realty is powered by Cityscape Real Estate LTD., Brokerage.