Uncategorized

TRREB September 2026: GTA Home Sales Down 9%, Prices Down 5.1% as Fixed Rates Climb

TRREB September 2026: GTA home sales fell 9% and the average price slipped 5.1% to $1,006,409 as new listings dropped 14.4%. What rising fixed mortgage rates and the Oct 28 Bank of Canada decision mean for GTA buyers and sellers.

GTA detached house in fall, TRREB September 2026 market

October 6, 2026. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) released its September 2026 Market Watch this morning, and the headline is simple: GTA buyers spent September on the sidelines. Sales fell 9% year over year, the average selling price slipped 5.1% to $1,006,409, and new listings dropped even faster than sales. At the same time, every Big Six bank has now raised select fixed mortgage rates, and the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision is being treated by markets as close to a coin flip.

Below is what the new TRREB numbers actually say, how the rate backdrop changed in the last two weeks, and a practical playbook for GTA buyers and sellers heading into late fall. If you only want the short version: prices are softer than last year, but supply is thinning too, so this is a negotiating market, not a collapse. Good preparation matters more than perfect timing.

TRREB September 2026 by the numbers

From TRREB’s October 6, 2026 news release and the full September 2026 Market Watch report:

  • Sales: 5,040 GTA home sales, down 9.0% from 5,540 in September 2025.
  • New listings: 16,500, down 14.4% from 19,270.
  • Active listings at month end: 26,131, down 9.3% from 28,813.
  • Average selling price: $1,006,409, down 5.1% from $1,060,036.
  • MLS® HPI Composite benchmark: down 4.7% year over year.
  • Median price: $860,000 across all TRREB areas.
  • Average sale-to-list price ratio: 98%, with about 4.6 months of inventory (trend).
  • Average days on market: 34 listing days (33 a year ago) and 51 property days (unchanged).

Seasonally adjusted, both sales and new listings were down from August, and both the HPI Composite and the average price “edged lower” month over month. In plain terms, September did not deliver the fall bounce some people expected after a tighter August.

TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer framed it this way: there is “substantial pent-up demand in the GTA,” but would-be buyers “need to be confident that their employment situation will remain solid and inflation will not put pressure on borrowing costs over the long term.” That is the key point for this fall. The hold-back is confidence and borrowing costs, not a lack of people who want to buy.

Why fewer sales did not mean a weaker balance

New listings fell faster than sales. That pushed the sales-to-new-listings ratio up from roughly 28.7% last September to about 30.5% this September, as Real Estate Magazine noted on October 6. Some sellers who did not need to move simply held off. So buyers have fewer fresh options than a year ago, yet prices are still lower than a year ago. Both things are true at once, which is why each neighbourhood can feel very different.

Home type and 416 vs 905: where prices moved

TRREB’s breakdown by home type (all TRREB areas, September 2026 vs September 2025):

  • Detached: 2,399 sales (−8.7%), average $1,292,016 (−5.1%). In the City of Toronto (416) the detached average was $1,562,966 (−7.6%); in the 905 regions it was $1,193,432 (−4.4%).
  • Semi-detached: 459 sales (−8.2%), average $1,015,202 (−0.2%), essentially flat on price. Semis also sold at an average of 102% of list with 25 listing days, the strongest ratio of any major type.
  • Townhouse: 803 sales (−12.8%), average $820,637 (−4.6%).
  • Condo apartment: 1,316 sales (−7.8%), average $605,257 (−7.7%). The 905 condo average fell harder, down 12.0% to $533,654, while the 416 condo average was $640,248 (−6.1%).

The pattern is familiar from earlier in 2026. Freehold “missing middle” homes such as semis and townhouses in established neighbourhoods are holding value best, and investor-heavy condo stock, especially in the 905, is taking the biggest price hit. If you are deciding between product types, our condo vs house cost guide for Toronto in 2026 walks through the carrying-cost side.

Regional snapshot

  • City of Toronto: 1,937 sales, average $1,034,320, median $810,000, 99% of list, 4.6 months of inventory.
  • Toronto East was the tightest part of the city at 101% of list, 29 listing days and 3.6 months of inventory. Toronto Central was softest at 5.1 months.
  • Durham Region: 552 sales, average $828,141, 3.5 months of inventory. Whitby (2.9 months) and Ajax (3.0) were among the tightest markets in the GTA.
  • York Region: 893 sales, average $1,136,650, 5.0 months of inventory and 38 listing days. King sat at 11.4 months.
  • Peel Region: 936 sales, average $906,719, 4.9 months. Halton Region: 502 sales, average $1,139,025, 96% of list.

Year to date, TRREB reports 47,115 sales at an average of $1,025,266.

The rate backdrop: fixed rates up, October 28 in focus

The September data was collected while borrowing costs were moving the wrong way for buyers. Three things changed in the last few weeks.

  1. Every Big Six bank has raised fixed rates. Money.ca reported on October 3 that CIBC and TD raised select fixed rates by 20 basis points on September 29, mostly on 3- and 5-year terms, after BMO, National Bank, RBC and Scotiabank made similar moves. Other lenders raised by 5 to 40 basis points.
  2. Bond yields pushed higher. The same report noted the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, the main benchmark for fixed mortgages, hit a 52-week high of 3.729% on September 28. Mortgage Squad’s October 2026 market report showed the 5-year yield around 3.60% as of October 5, up about 0.30 percentage points in a month, with the policy rate at 2.25% and prime at 4.45%.
  3. Hike risk is real. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in a September 21 speech that the Bank does not want to be “too slow to respond if inflationary pressures are becoming more persistent.” Money.ca reported that markets now see the October 28 meeting as close to a coin flip. TRREB’s own Market Watch lists August CPI at 3.0% and Toronto unemployment at 6.8%.

Canadian Mortgage Professional added some context on October 5: mortgage arrears are rising fastest in Toronto and southern Ontario, though still within pre-pandemic averages. That matters for sellers too, because more motivated listings can show up in pockets of the market as renewals reset.

What 20 basis points means on a real payment

Here is a simple illustration (not a quote). On an $800,000 mortgage over a 25-year amortization, moving from 4.14% to 4.34% raises the monthly payment by about $88, or roughly $5,270 over a five-year term. On a $600,000 mortgage the difference is about $66 a month, or roughly $3,950 over five years. That is not a deal-breaker for most qualified buyers, but it is a reason to lock in a rate hold now rather than after October 28.

Buyer playbook for October and November 2026

  1. Get a rate hold this week. Most lenders hold a pre-approval rate for 90 to 120 days. If fixed rates keep climbing, the hold protects you. If they fall, you can usually take the lower rate.
  2. Use the price softness, but price the specific street. A 5.1% GTA-wide average decline is not your house. Semis in Toronto East were selling over asking in September, while 905 condos were down double digits. Ask your agent for recent sold comparables on the exact block or building.
  3. Negotiate on terms, not just price. With 34 average listing days and 98% sale-to-list, many sellers will take conditions on financing and inspection, longer closings, or credits. That was much harder in 2021 and 2022.
  4. Budget cash to close early. Land transfer tax, legal fees and adjustments sit beside your down payment. Run the numbers with our land transfer tax calculator. First-time buyers should also read our Ontario 2026 guide to the FHSA, Home Buyers’ Plan and land transfer rebates.
  5. Get cash back on your purchase. National Home Realty’s buyer cash back rebate returns part of the buyer-side commission to you at closing, up to about $12,500 on a $1M purchase. With fixed rates rising, that money can cover closing costs or cushion your first year of payments.
  6. Watch the municipal election. TRREB CEO John DiMichele called on governments to reduce Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax and oppose expanding similar taxes across the GTA and Simcoe County. Ontario votes in municipal elections on October 26, so listen for what candidates in your area say about housing costs.

Seller playbook: how to sell in a slower GTA fall market

  1. Price to the current market, not the spring. Benchmark prices are down 4.7% year over year and edged lower again in September. Listings priced on last year’s comparables tend to sit, then sell for less after a price cut.
  2. Know your local inventory. At 3 months of inventory (Whitby, Ajax, Toronto East) you can price closer to the top of the range. At 5 months or more (Toronto Central, York Region, Simcoe County) sharper pricing and better presentation matter more.
  3. Fewer competing listings help you. New listings were down 14.4% year over year. A well-priced, well-presented home faces less competition than it would have last fall.
  4. Plan for buyers who are rate-sensitive. Expect financing conditions and a closer look at monthly costs. Clear disclosure, a pre-listing inspection and realistic closing dates help keep deals together.
  5. Keep more of your equity with a flat fee. When prices are softer, commission is one of the few costs you can control. More on that below.

The commission math in a softer market

At the September GTA average price of $1,006,409, a traditional 2.5% listing-side commission is about $25,160 before HST. National Home Realty lists your home on MLS® for a flat $6,000 + HST, about $6,780 all in, through Cityscape Real Estate LTD., Brokerage. That difference can be larger than a year’s worth of price decline on a typical GTA condo. Our guide to discount realtors in Toronto for 2026 compares the options in more detail.

If you are both selling and buying this fall, combining a flat-fee listing with buyer cash back on your next home is one of the simplest ways to offset the higher fixed rates showing up at renewal.

What to watch next

  • September CPI from Statistics Canada later in October, especially whether core inflation moves above 2%.
  • The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, which drives fixed mortgage pricing.
  • Ontario municipal elections on October 26 and any land transfer tax promises.
  • The Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report on October 28.
  • TRREB’s October 2026 Market Watch in early November.

Work with National Home Realty

Questions about what the September numbers mean for your street or building? Reach out and we will pull the sold comparables for you.

Sources

This article is general market information, not financial, legal or mortgage advice. Payment examples are illustrations only. National Home Realty is powered by Cityscape Real Estate LTD., Brokerage.