Updated September 2026. Two fresh data points matter for Greater Toronto Area buyers and sellers right now: the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2, and TRREB’s August market snapshot (released September 3) shows sales and listings both softer year-over-year — with the average sale price back under $1 million.
Here’s what the numbers say, what they mean for your next move, and how keeping more of your equity (or reclaiming buyer-side commission) changes the math when rates and inventory are in flux.
Bank of Canada: seventh straight hold at 2.25%
On September 2, 2026, the Bank of Canada left the overnight rate at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.5%, deposit rate 2.20%). Official release: Bank of Canada FAD press release.
Governing Council said the economy and inflation were evolving broadly as forecast in the July Monetary Policy Report, but flagged higher upside risks to inflation and more uncertain growth from new tariffs. The next scheduled rate announcement is October 28, 2026, with a new Monetary Policy Report the same day.
That October meeting is the one to watch. The Bank has been clear that fresh forecasts will guide the next decision — so mortgage shoppers should build a plan that still works if the policy rate stays on hold, and a backup plan if the tone turns more restrictive.
Practical takeaway for GTA households: mortgage-rate paths are still data-dependent. Planning a purchase or sale around “maybe a cut next month” is riskier than locking a payment scenario you can live with — then optimizing transaction costs you can control.
What a hold at 2.25% does (and doesn’t) change for your mortgage math
A hold is not the same thing as cheaper payments overnight. Contract rates, stress-test qualification, and lender appetite still move on their own timelines. What the hold does do is remove one source of short-term guesswork for the next few weeks: the overnight rate is not being cut on September 2, and the Bank wants more information before October 28.
If you’re renewing, shopping a pre-approval, or comparing fixed vs variable, use the hold as a prompt to:
- Re-run payments at today’s posted/discounted quotes and a modestly higher rate (so a hawkish October surprise doesn’t break the plan)
- Check how much cash you need at closing after land transfer tax, adjustments, and moving costs — our land transfer calculator helps frame the Ontario/Toronto side of that stack
- Decide whether waiting for “clarity” is worth the risk that listings stay thin and competition rises
TRREB August 2026: fewer sales, fewer listings, average under $1M
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (market update published September 3, 2026):
- 5,057 GTA home sales in August 2026 — down 2.1% vs August 2025
- 12,075 new listings — down 14.1% year-over-year
- Average selling price $993,410 — down 2.7% year-over-year
- MLS® HPI Composite benchmark down 4.5% year-over-year
TRREB’s framing matters: thinner listings can limit choice and, if demand firms, set up conditions for renewed price pressure later. Seasonally adjusted sales were slightly softer month-over-month vs July, while seasonally adjusted new listings rose — a mixed short-term tape.
Put simply: year-over-year, the market is quieter and cheaper on average than August 2025, but it is also less well supplied. That combination is why “wait for prices to fall more” and “wait for more inventory” can both feel rational — and why the wrong wait can be expensive if listings stay scarce.
How to read sales vs listings together
Sales down 2.1% with new listings down 14.1% is a different story than a collapse in demand alone. When new supply falls faster than sales, some neighbourhoods can still feel competitive even if the GTA-wide average price is softer than last year.
For sellers, that can mean:
- Pricing to the active buyer pool beats pricing to last spring’s headlines
- Presentation and days-on-market strategy matter more when buyers have fewer alternatives
- Fee structure matters more when every negotiation dollar is scrutinized
For buyers, that can mean:
- Pre-approval and deposit strategy need to be ready before the right listing appears
- Condition strategy should match how scarce comparable inventory is in your micro-market
- Cash left after closing costs can be as important as the purchase price itself
What this means if you’re buying in the GTA
With the average price under $1M again and inventory tighter than a year ago in August, buyers are balancing two clocks: payment comfort under a 2.25% policy-rate backdrop, and competition that can heat up when listings stay scarce.
National Home Realty’s buyer cashback (tiered rebate of buyer-side commission under TRESA/RECO rules) is designed for exactly this kind of market — every dollar of rebate is dry powder for closing costs, a larger down payment buffer, or a stronger offer. Pair that with a clear payment stress-test before you shop, not after.
A simple way to use cashback in September 2026 conditions:
- Get clear on maximum comfortable payment at today’s quotes and a higher “what if” rate
- Map total cash to close (including land transfer tax)
- Treat buyer-side cashback as a dedicated line item that improves either your offer strength or your post-closing buffer — not as a surprise bonus after the fact
Learn more on our buyer cashback page.
What this means if you’re selling
Fewer new listings year-over-year can help well-priced homes stand out — but buyers are still cost-sensitive. A traditional percentage listing fee on a ~$1M property can erase tens of thousands of dollars that would otherwise stay in your equity.
National Home Realty lists on MLS® for a flat $6,000 + HST (powered by Cityscape Real Estate LTD., Brokerage). In a market where average prices are soft year-over-year but inventory is tighter, keeping your fee predictable often beats gambling on a percentage that scales with the sale price.
Seller checklist for this tape:
- Price to recent nearby solds and active competition, not last year’s peak print
- Fix the obvious objections before day one on MLS® (repairs, staging, disclosure readiness)
- Know your net proceeds after commission/fees — flat fee keeps that line predictable
Start here: sell your home with a flat fee.
Condo vs house: same macro story, different micro markets
GTA-wide averages hide big differences between property types and cities. Condos, townhomes, and detached homes can move on different timelines even when the overnight rate is unchanged. If you’re choosing between a condo and a house in Toronto or the 905, treat August’s GTA averages as context — then drill into the specific inventory and solds for your target segment before you write an offer or set a list price.
We’ll keep publishing dated segment updates as TRREB releases deepen the picture. For a broader ownership-cost lens, see our guides on condo fees/assessments and transaction cost stacks on the NHR blog.
What to watch before October 28
- BoC October 28 decision + new MPR — inflation outlook and growth assumptions
- September TRREB release — whether new listings stay scarce and whether average/benchmark prices stabilize
- Trade/tariff headlines — the Bank explicitly tied uncertainty in the growth outlook to tariffs
- Your personal rate quotes — lender pricing can move even when the overnight rate does not
How NHR helps you act on the data — not the noise
- Sellers: flat-fee MLS® listing at $6,000 + HST — cancel-anytime clarity, full MLS® exposure
- Buyers: cashback on the buy side so more of the commission stack comes back to you
- Both: local GTA guidance across Toronto, Mississauga, and surrounding markets
Explore selling with a flat fee, buyer cashback, or run the numbers on our land transfer calculator.
Bottom line
September’s message is not “panic” and it’s not “cruise control.” The policy rate is steady at 2.25% for now, August GTA sales and listings were softer than a year ago, and thinner supply is the swing factor TRREB is watching. Buyers and sellers who control fees, cash-to-close, and pricing discipline will outperform those waiting for a perfect headline.
Sources
- Bank of Canada — FAD press release, September 2, 2026
- TRREB — August 2026 market update (published September 3, 2026)
This article is for general information only and is not legal, mortgage, or investment advice. Commission and rebate structures are subject to TRESA/RECO rules and written representation agreements. Verify current rates and fees with National Home Realty before you decide.